It’s official: 1.5°C is now inevitable.
Per the latest report of the UN Environment Programme, global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming – the long-term benchmark under the Paris Agreement – in the next few years. Without improvements to current policies, our world could be warmer by 2.6°C by the end of the century.
This represents a global failure to accelerate solutions to address what is now undeniably a crisis. It is due to the failure of historical polluters to sufficiently decrease their greenhouse gas emissions. It is due to the failure of developed countries to collectively provide sufficient finance to further enable solutions – by a factor of up to six times below what is needed by developing countries like the Philippines.
Time and again, the most vulnerable countries and communities have repeatedly and disproportionately taken the worst impacts of the climate crisis, while fossil fuel giants keep making record profits at our collective expense and duty-bearers avoid accountability for their failures. We have suffered far more than enough.
But this picture in the national context is incomplete without seeing what is happening right in front of us.
In the past few weeks alone, our nation has been battered yet again by strong winds and heavy rainfall, brought by the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones. Yet again, communities are not given any time to recover, which – amplified by the aftermath of the flood control corruption scandals – left entire cities and towns submerged in floods, seeking relief aid, and searching for answers to recurring issues.
None of this means that we should simply accept the inevitable; this only makes our voices louder and choices stronger to advocate for stronger solutions against the climate crisis. It does not invalidate 1.5°C, but only strengthens it as the benchmark with which we measure the success of global climate action moving forward, as set under the 2025 International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion on climate change and reaffirmed under a 2026 UN General Assembly resolution.
Every degree of warming avoided means losses and damages averted, lives saved, and ecosystems protected from even worse climate risks. It means keeping the window open for a low-emissions, climate-resilient, and sustainably-developed future where no one is left behind.
We demand for developed countries to have enhanced net-reductions of their greenhouse gas emissions to enable global emissions to peak before declining to 1.5°C. We also demand that they live up to their obligation to provide adequate means of implementation – finance, technologies, and capacity-building means – to developing countries like the Philippines to help us increase our adaptive capacities and minimize losses and damages as emissions decline. These commitments must be confirmed at the upcoming climate COP31 in Antalya, Turkiye.
We also demand for a greater pace of transitioning away from fossil fuels, ensuring renewable energy will provide up to 70% of global electricity by the end of the decade. We also demand for greater forest protection and native reforestation to remove emissions in the natural environment and strengthen ecological health. We also make direct these specific calls to the Philippine government, in recognition of its responsibility to protect its communities and ecosystems in the era of the climate crisis.
We also call on the Philippine government to finalize and publicize our Nationally Determined Contribution and Just Transition Framework, two key plans that would define the direction of national climate action moving forward. No more recalculations, no more room for second-guessing. We know the challenge that lies right in front of us. We must work together.
Overshooting 1.5°C of warming is unavoidable, but the fight for climate justice is unstoppable. Climate action speaks louder than words.