Official statement on the 2026 Philippines Nationally Determined Contribution
Aksyon Klima Pilipinas (AKP) acknowledges the 2026 Philippine Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as an improvement over the 2021 climate pledge. It trends in the right direction for raising national ambition in addressing the climate crisis, but fails to present the needed urgency and an incomplete picture of the full potential of Philippine climate action for the next decade.
The setting of a higher unconditional target and the inclusion of the forestry and other land use (FOLU) sector, two of the biggest calls we have been making to the government, have been integrated into this NDC that still retains its target of largely avoiding greenhouse gas emissions by 75% from 2025 to 2035.
However, it is missing many much-needed pieces of the puzzle that would give a clear picture of the progress in national climate action and its vision for a low-emissions, climate-resilient future – from transitioning away from fossil fuels to aligning with the 1.5°C benchmark under the Paris Agreement.
More ‘unconditional’ actions
The higher unconditional target of the 2026 NDC is set at 7%, a massive improvement compared to the previous target of 2.71%. This is not only a welcomed sign in implementing more solutions to mitigate emissions, but also as a sign of commitment to accountability and good governance.
While the Philippines still needs finance, technologies, and capacity-building from developed countries that caused the climate crisis as a means of achieving justice, these countries have not given adequate support in recent years. Most of this financing has also come through loans, which only adds to our rising national debt and the burden that Filipinos should never have to carry in the first place.
While we fight to secure these means of implementation at the global arena, we cannot just wait for this to happen. A higher unconditional target means that the Philippines will implement more mitigation solutions on its own across the sectors of agriculture, waste, industrial processes and product use, transport, forestry and other land use (FOLU), and energy.
Our country’s capacity to implement its own solutions have been depleted in recent years by corruption, as evidenced by the flood control scandals. Through this lens, a higher unconditional target also means there must be higher allocations in the 2027 national budget and beyond to ensure proper implementation of identified NDC solutions – from nature-based solutions (NbS) to improved energy efficiency and conservation.
After being left out of the 2021 pledge, the full integration of the FOLU sector into the 2026 NDC could not have come at a timelier moment for our country. Its inclusion is a main driver for the higher unconditional target and the goal for the Philippines to be a net-sink by 2035, but its impacts will go beyond numbers.
Public clamor for forests and ecosystems protection is at an all-time high after repeated extreme heat and flooding, resulting to disasters and losses and damages inflicted on millions of Filipinos. Including in the NDC a focus on NbS and restoring blue carbon is necessary for recognizing that the links between climate and nature must be integrated in national and local governance. It also signals that policymakers will shift away from overreliance on grey infrastructure that is prone to be flooded with corruption.
1.5°C remains the benchmark
Yet the updated NDC remains incomplete, largely because there remain several missing components that are necessary for a climate-vulnerable country like the Philippines to properly implement its NDC. One of the missing elements from the 2026 NDC is a decarbonization pathway aligned with the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Per a recent UN report, surpassing this level of global warming is inevitable for the foreseeable future. This is caused by the failure of the global community, especially the Global North and corporations, to repay their ecological debt to climate-vulnerable nations like the Philippines, resulting in Filipinos suffering from losses and damages of all kinds—loss of homes due to flooding, loss of livelihoods due to extreme rainfall, loss of schooling days due to extreme heat, and the list grows even longer.
This makes aligning with 1.5°C even more of an imperative for the Philippines, a responsibility recognized per the International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion on climate change that has been adopted through a 2026 resolution by the UN General Assembly.
While the Philippines is not a high-emitting country, having this pathway is the benchmark with which we assess the implementation of the nation’s climate strategies – not just the NDC, but also in other areas of climate work, such as carbon markets and just transition.
With the document stating the pursuit of “low-carbon development”, which is impossible without leaving fossil fuels behind, refusing to make the TAFF choice renders the NDC, while updated, feel incomplete.
Avoiding the ‘TAFF’ choice
Another notable omission is a lack of a definitively strong commitment by the national government on transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF). Despite having an identified energy program called “fossil fuel transition” (specifically for coal and oil) during the public consultations, it refused to endorse the Fossil Fuel Transition Roadmap that emerged at UNFCCC COP30.
The relevance of TAFF in the Philippine context has never been more apparent than through the impacts of the war in Southwest Asia. Higher oil prices, inflation in other goods and services, adjustments in work set-ups, and additional burdens on public transport drivers in recent months are a preview of what awaits us if the government does not willingly start to move away from strong dependence on coal, oil, and gas.
The inconsistent signals sent to the public about its approach for a just energy transition remains frustrating – from calling gas a “transition fuel” without a clear timeline for phaseout to easing the restrictions on the 2020 coal moratorium.
Energy security is important for our country’s future – but so is energy affordability, accessibility, and sustainability. As part of its responsibility with the 1.5°C imperative, our country’s leadership must make the TAFF choice; it is our hope that it would be sooner than too late.
The TAFF choice must also be just. After all, developing our indigenous renewable energy sources means little if electricity bills remain high, if our ecosystems are ruined due to reckless mining of critical minerals, and if corporations end up excessively benefitting from them at the expense of communities.
We must make polluters pay. We must hold those responsible for this crisis accountable. We must never forget who this NDC is really for – the Filipino people of the present and future.
Ways forward
As representatives of the most vulnerable communities in the Philippines, we present the following main recommendations to the national government regarding the 2026 NDC;
- Report on the progress of the implementation of the 2021 NDC and relate it to the formulation of the 2026 NDC, including through the development of the Biennial Transparency Report;
- Present the cost of implementation of the 2026 NDC, especially the unconditional policies and measures for integration into national budgeting processes for the next decade;
- Prioritize the development of a Long-Term Strategy, specifically on the 1.5°C-aligned decarbonization pathway for the Philippines and how this will influence the updated NDC and other workstreams such as implementing just transition and engagements in carbon markets;
- Commence the formulation of a national JET plan geared towards decarbonization, with targets for reducing the presence and reliance on coal, oil, and gas in the national energy mix and the increase in the share of renewable energy across different timescales until 2050, aligned with the national Just Transition Framework that will be released soon;
- Strengthen policies and measures for forest protection, conservation, and restoration, without overreliance on these natural sinks to offset GHG emissions from other sectors;
- Ensure that gender equality, disability and social inclusion principles and the strictest environmental and social safeguards are integrated into the updated NDC and all identified solutions, especially in areas of just transition, NbS, and carbon markets;
- Urgently develop a policy or strategy on non-market approaches to avoid overreliance on market-based approaches;
- Demonstrate how the NDC complements existing programs and policies on adaptation and disaster risk reduction management;
- Ensure sufficient funds are allocated for unconditional NDC solutions, as part of the 2027 national budget and succeeding iterations until 2035, coupled with measures to improve existing cross-sectoral monitoring, review, and validation (MRV) systems;
- Develop and adopt a cross-sectoral national policy and framework on nature-based solutions and mainstream its integration into infrastructure development, agriculture, water, climate action, and other sectors, coupled with adequate financing for its implementation, including increased allocation in the 2027 national budget;
- Urgently pass the National Land Use Act to enhance the implementation of relevant NDC solutions (i.e., reforestation, urban planning), drive sustainable urbanization, and enhance adaptation, aligned with recommendations under the Philippine Development Plan; and
- Institutionalize an open, inclusive, and participative MRV system for the implementation of the updated NDC, with clear and defined roles for non-government stakeholders such as civil society organizations, people’s organizations, labor groups, local communities, and Indigenous Peoples, that go beyond being reference groups for consultations.