We have been warned: the peak of the Super El Niño is fast approaching.
We are already feeling the impacts of the strongest El Niño in recent history, which not only could become very strong, but is also expected to persist into the first half of 2027. Its intensity could peak before the end of 2026, raising the likelihood of prolonged and potentially severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, food security, ecosystems, health, and other climate-sensitive sectors. Its anticipated effects – extremely high temperatures and drier conditions – would be enhanced by human-induced global warming and subsequent climate changes, which places communities and ecosystems at higher risk.
The Philippines – already the nation with the highest disaster risk – would be severely affected by this so-called Super El Niño, especially without proper interventions. To begin this month, 106 localities have already been placed under a state of calamity. Over PHP5.5 billion have already been lost from the agricultural sector, affecting over 200 thousand farmers and fisherfolk.
Come March next year, no province would be safe from droughts. Localized heat-index values could potentially exceed 45°C, especially in densely-populated urban communities. The nation’s water system, which has already been strained to the point of nearing bankruptcy, would likely be the most strained of all sectors. Nearly PHP78 billion would be directly lost from agriculture and fisheries, with over PHP200 billion worth of indirect losses and millions of Filipinos pushed towards food and water insecurity.
We acknowledge that the Philippine government is in a better starting position to respond to the peak of the Super El Niño than a decade ago, or the moderate El Niño from two years ago. Some lessons have been learned, such as improved early warning systems, a new framework for anticipatory action under the State of Imminent Disasters Act, projects on small-scale water harvesting and farm reservoirs, and more familiarity with emerging agricultural adaptation technologies.
We recognize that some members in Congress have proposed amendments to make the 2027 national budget “El Niño-proof”. Yet many of the recent changes to next year’s National Expenditures Program (NEP) – from reducing the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management (DRRM) Fund to lowering the budget of the National Irrigation Administration – threaten to fully undermine these efforts and enhance the vulnerabilities of communities for the next few months.
We also acknowledge the development of an updated National Action Plan for El Niño that would respond to concerns by sectors instead of agencies. Yet it is clear that these efforts will not be enough not necessarily because the climate impacts would be too much to overcome, but because preparations are insufficient given the scale of the needs of Filipinos.
The proposed irrigation budget only responds to thousands of hectares instead of millions. Hundreds of thousands of Filipinos – especially farmers and fisherfolks – would be left out of coverage for social protection when they need it the most. National and local systems on food, water, energy, and health are threatened to be severely strained within at least the next six months.
We emphasize that some of the trillions of pesos lost to corruption in mismanaged flood control projects – most of which has still not been recovered – could have been used to further enhance strategies being implemented. This is what happens when the greed of the few are prioritized over the needs of an entire nation, especially during times of crises.
Any augmentation for El Niño-proofing is not an expense; it is an investment that will save lives and money. The question is not whether the Philippines can afford to act, but whether it can afford not to do it sufficiently.
Nonetheless, this time, the government had more time to prepare and more cases to learn from. How the BBM administration responds to this once-in-a-lifetime challenge will determine whether the promoted “predictive” style of governance to climate and disaster risks is genuine or just another lip service.
We make the following short-term, feasible, and actionable calls to the executive and legislative branches of the government to enhance preparations for the impacts of the peak of the very strong El Niño:
- Publicize the complete and updated National Action Plan for El Niño. The entire plan, including its implementation, financing, and monitoring strategies, must be known to the public not only for alignment with transparency and accountability, but also to enable a stronger “whole-of-nation” approach to address the impacts of the Super El Niño. Disclosures under this plan must demonstrate whether public expenditures and applied interventions truly address the risks faced and the needs of the most-exposed and vulnerable communities.
- Declare a State of Imminent Disaster to enable more anticipatory actions. Every peso spent on anticipatory action saves at least four pesos in emergency response and recovery costs. With a national pre-disaster risk assessment already conducted, the National DRRM Council should recommend to the President the declaration of a State of Imminent Disaster, pursuant to RA 12287. This unlocks pre-disaster financing and triggers anticipatory actions to enable immediate actions, especially in provinces to be hit earlier by the incoming droughts.
- Substantially increase public funding for irrigation system repairs. The current version of the 2027 NEP is woefully insufficient to address the requested funding for drought-proofing and repairing irrigation systems. Before passing the NEP, Congress must ensure identified projects target agricultural areas that would be hit the hardest by the Super El Niño-induced droughts.
- Restore at least PHP2 billion to funding of Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation. Given recent forecasts, it is unjustified for the funding of crop-insurance protection from PCIC to be lowered to only PHP4.5 billion from PHP6.5 billion in the 2026 budget; this is considering PCIC itself asked for PHP7.5 billion for its 2027 budget. Matching or surpassing PHP6.5 billion would add around one million beneficiaries as part of its coverage, prioritizing subsistence producers.
- Strengthen stable supply of affordable, safe, and secure water through a national minimum water-service guarantee. Access to water is a universal human right to which no Filipino should be denied. Beyond assurances of a sufficient bottled water supply, the government must disclose a strategy to ensure water will be available to drought-exposed communities. It must guarantee emergency supplies through public finance, with measurable minimum service standards, clear delivery responsibilities, and transparent monitoring.
- Establish an El Niño-responsive fast-tracking grant window under the People’s Survival Fund. Its Board should allocate half of its remaining 2026 budget and its allotted PHP1 billion under the 2027 NEP through this rapid disbursement modality through a simplified application process and project cycle. Fifth and sixth-class municipalities projected to be hard-hit by the Super El Niño must be prioritized.